Immediately after the announcement of a revised withdrawal agreement on October 17, 2019, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the DUP said they could not support the new agreement.  If there is no agreement between the two parties, then the default position is that rates must be paid for all goods. A Brexit without a deal (Walker and Elgot, 2019) and threats against the Good Friday deal (McDonald,2019) could force the people of Northern Ireland to consider a border poll and the possibility of a UK in Ireland (Whysall, 2019). One possibility could be a border investigation in Northern Ireland, which would meet with a constitutional referendum in the Republic of Ireland. The provisional constitutional provisions would maintain as much as possible the status quo in Northern Ireland and would pursue both decentralisation and compulsory power-sharing, but would exchange the role of Dublin and London. The political dynamics created by Brexit could make a border inquiry inevitable. The Republic of Ireland`s referendum would redefine the territory to include Northern Ireland, but would also impose provisional constitutional provisions and a series of broader constitutional amendments that would apply by default five years later if a new constitution were adopted by referendum on an island basis. A possible vote on United Ireland in both jurisdictions would be necessary (Doyle, 2019). The gloomy economic forecasts on the impact of a no-deal Brexit are then put to the test by events, in an environment infinitely more hostile because of the consequences of COVID-19.
Northern Ireland`s painfully errasy relative stability, which is based on the Good Friday Agreement, will be compromised, a result that will provoke resistance in the United States. This opposition from Congress and other U.S. sources will serve to rule out any possibility of a favorable trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom. The widespread perception of the current British government as a “rogue” administration is reinforced by its onst street attitude towards the implementation of international treaties. Biden himself is part of the Irish-American lobby. “The Irish cause is in his veins,” a former collaborator, Shailagh Murray, told the New York Times (Landler, 2020). He often quotes Yeats and, in his acceptance speech for the Democrats` nomination in August, he quoted lines from irish poet and playwright Seamus Heaney, adding: “This is our time to bring hope and history together.” Biden`s cultural and political hinterland is steeped in Irish nationalism. In every Anglo-Irish quarrel, he will instinctively occupy the Irish side. The withdrawal agreement provides for a transitional period until 31 December 2020, during which time the UK will remain in the internal market, to ensure the smooth flow of trade until a long-term relationship is concluded.